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Apples And Stock Bubbles


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Once when I was very young, my dad and I were watching our dog run around the back yard.

The dog got near a small apple tree.

My dad remarked that he didn't want our dog to get a taste of the apples.

At the time, I had no idea what he meant.

But later I did.

An apple tree, to a dog, is just a regular tree.

And since dogs don't generally eat trees, they don't think of an apple tree as anything special.

But this particular tree was pretty small.

Small enough so the dog could reach some of the apples.

My dad was worried that if the dog ate one of the apples off the tree, she would realize that particular tree had some food.

And she would eat ALL the apples.

Beginner's luck CAN be pretty fun, but it can also be terrible.

Usually the more obvious it is, the less dangerous it is.

If you walked up to a craps table in Vegas, for example, and tossed down some money and won, you would KNOW it was beginner's luck.

Because you were in Vegas, you would KNOW that gambling is very risky.

On the other hand, if you tried your hand at investing, and got lucky, you might actually conclude that investing is easy.

A friend actually did that, by making a spectacularly boneheaded mistake.

He actually bought the WRONG stock.

This was way back in first Internet bubble of the late nineties.

The stock he WANTED to buy was less than a dollar.

The stock he DID buy was less than a dollar.

But he got the ticker symbol wrong.

But the stock he DID buy, went up by over 1000% in the next couple months.

He invested a little UNDER $300, and got back a little OVER $3000.

This essentially TRAINED HIM that investing was EASY.

A lesson that later led him to lose EVERYTHING when the bubble popped around 2000.

Learning the wrong lessons can be CATASTROPHIC.

Learning the RIGHT lessons can be EXTREMELY helpful.

Even more, the actual process of learning (self training) is pretty easy.

Just as easy as training others.

And so long as you have their best interests in mind, you can train them to do ANYTHING and they'll never know.

We humans are trained by our environment all the time.

So when you slowly train in certain behaviors in others, they'll never know the difference.

They'll think it's natural.

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