Coin Flipping Paradox

[admin]

 

 

One of the myths of NLP is in it’s most common name.

“The Study Of Excellence.”

The idea is you can find something that is “excellent.”

Then you can study it.

And if you study it well enough, you can recreate that excellence yourself.

This is how NLP was created in the first place.

By COPYING people who were ALREADY excellent communicators.

But there are a couple problems with that.

Imagine a regular mall.

Imagine that mall over the course of about thirty years.

Shops come and go.

Some last longer than others.

Trends change.

Demographics change.

The economy changes.

Suppose in that one mall, that’s been there for 30 years, there are three stores that have lasted the whole time.

From the standpoint of “studying excellence,” all you’d have to do would be to “study” exactly what those three stores did, and you could reproduce it.

Right?

Not really.

Because every single year, each one of those stores had NO IDEA whether they would be successful.

Put it this way.

Let’s suppose you had 64 people, each with a quarter.

And each person flips the coin six times.

By pure probability, ONE guy would likely get six heads in a row.

Now, suppose you walked up to THAT guy and tried to “reverse engineer” his coin flipping strategy.

And you thought if you studied him enough, YOU could flip six heads in a row.

Pretty silly, right?

But this is essentially the SAME THING that happens when you have a mall around for thirty years.

Every shop maybe has a fifty-fifty chance of success.

So at the end of thirty years, the shops that are around are less “excellent” and more lucky.

Sure, staying in business is more predictable than flipping coins, but there IS tons of unknown risk.

Otherwise ALL BUSINESSES would succeed.

The question, then is HOW EXACTLY can you “study excellence” when MOST SUCCESSES are based primarily on “luck” that is NO DIFFERENT than a coin toss?

One way would be to figure how to TAKE MORE CHANCES where you can accept the loss.

If you wanted to flip a coin and get six heads in a row, you could.

You’d just to keep flipping long enough for it to happen.

It might take a few days, but with persistence, the laws of probability DEMAND that it occurs.

If you go long enough, it would be impossible to NOT happen.

And there are things those successful shops did that INCREASED their chances of success.

And there are things YOU can do everyday that will increase YOUR chances of success.

Even if you don’t know what that is yet.

Learn More:

http://mindpersuasion.com/deep-skills/