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Why Experts Are Clueless


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A very common idea in business is split testing.

Even way before the internet, split testing was common.

Markers know that if they want to get useful data, they need to do something other than ask people directly.

Psychologists tell us that when we answer questions, we usually give answers that make us look good.

Or if some marketing company is having some kind of focus group, they usually have to pay people.

And since the person who is paying you is asking the questions, this also makes us give less than honest answers.

But when they can set up situations where we behave naturally, that is about as accurate as the information gets.

For example, they'll send two flyers out to two different zip codes.

Then they measure the sale changes in each zip code.

This is an old school way of split testing.

If they did this for a few months, eventually they'd get an ad that worked pretty well.

But here's the interesting part.

If somebody came along and asked the advertising company WHY that particular ad was working so well, what would the answer be?

Since ad guys get paid a lot, they would tend to justify their salaries by explaining their theory as to WHY the ad worked so well.

(Which is again an example of people not able to tell the TRUTH when answering a question).

But the reality is that NOBODY would know exactly WHY the ad worked so well.

Remember, that ad was the result of a whole bunch of split testing.

If they KNEW why the ad worked, they wouldn't have needed to do the split testing in the first place.

Most people that have any kind of success get it the same way.

Nobody knows at the beginning of their career know EXACTLY how they will be successful.

In fact, the most successful people are successful because they admit to themselves early on they have no idea how they will be successful.


They essentially turn their entire lives into a split test.

They just keep trying things.

They do more of what works, and less of what doesn't.

EXTREMELY few businesses are started with a completely brand new product.

NEARLY EVERY business is created by copying what works, and changing it slightly.

And even then, it takes a lot of trial and error testing.

Which creates a strange problem.

We have world filled with "experts."

But HOW and WHY they became experts is anybody's guess.

Especially theirs.

Just like those imaginary admen a couple sentences before, they really don't know WHY their final ad worked so well.

And most people who are successful also don't really know WHY they are so successful.

If they DID, they would have done that from the beginning.

Instead of spending their entire lives on trial and error.

The problem comes as if we listen to these experts as if they KNOW how to become successful.

When they really have no idea.

In reality, listening to "experts" feels like it makes perfect sense, when it's the LAST THING you should be doing.

What should you be doing?

Starting your OWN path of trial and error learning, and ditch the experts.

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